[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241945
SWODY1
SPC AC 241944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN NM INTO SWRN TX...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOBILE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
SONORA MEXICO...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WRN TX.  INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVER SWRN NM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF
AROUND 500 J/KG. 

DESPITE WEAK SURFACE WINDS...CURRENT ELP VWP SHOWS 60-65 KT SWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER 
SHEAR. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT INTO PARTS OF FAR
WRN/SWRN TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MD 0165.

...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
W-CNTRL TX AHEAD OF A WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/EXPAND EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 02/24/2006