[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241632
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN NM/SW TX...
SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY ACROSS NRN MEXICO NEAR
THE U.S. BORDER REACHING SW/W TX LATE TONIGHT. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS
STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO NM AND
SW TX ALLOWING FOR STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVEL
COLD POCKET /-20 C AT 500 MB/ WITH SRN STREAM WAVE SPREADS EWD. 
DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS...AND WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING
RESULTS IN GREATEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.  STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FAR W TX...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE.  THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH AN EWD EXTENSION OF LOW SEVERE HAIL
PROBABILITIES INTO PARTS OF SW/W TX AS EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR/
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL
INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA REGIME ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN TX TODAY AND DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD LA TONIGHT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2006