[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241255
SWODY1
SPC AC 241253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
TWO SEPARATE FLOW STREAMS CHARACTERIZE THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A NRN STREAM FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A SRN STREAM FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST STATES. 
WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA WILL MOVE
GENERALLY EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL TX BY EARLY SATURDAY.  

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD
ACROSS SRN NM/W TX IN THE REGION OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID
LEVEL WAVE AXIS...AND ALONG THE NWRN FRINGE OF A PLUME OF LOW-MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE.  THOUGH MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
40S...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
INVOF FAR W TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO PERSIST
ACROSS W CENTRAL TX TODAY.  FARTHER E AND LATER TONIGHT...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXPANDING RAIN SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
AND N TX EWD TOWARD LA.

..THOMPSON.. 02/24/2006