[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240545
SWODY1
SPC AC 240543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

NRN BAJA UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AID VERTICAL ASCENT ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED NEAR
850MB...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR NEAR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WWD INTO NM WHERE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH STEEPER...APPROACHING 8C/KM.  THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS MEAGER CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER
OF 500 J/KG...WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR LONGER LIVED
UPDRAFTS.  ELEVATED CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH COLD THERMAL TROUGH INTO
SRN NM MOSTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

..DARROW.. 02/24/2006