[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240053
SWODY1
SPC AC 240052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ EXHIBITS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION FROM NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX.  ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY 100-200J/KG...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NM/MEXICO BORDER. LATEST
THINKING IS SFC BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD
TOWARD EL PASO BEFORE UPDRAFTS BECOME ELEVATED OVER WEST TX. 
LIGHTNING SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING/WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT INTO WCNTRL TX.

..DARROW.. 02/24/2006