[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231621
SWODY1
SPC AC 231619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO DE AMPLIFY ACROSS CONUS WITH DOMINATE
WLY COMPONENT. CONFLUENCE OF SRN AND NRN BRANCHES OCCURRING OVER
ERN U.S. UNDER WHICH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CAROLINAS WSWWD TO OFF
UPPER TX COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD.  BY 12Z FRI FRONT WILL
STRETCH FROM CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WWD ACROSS NRN GULF TO S TX.

SOME WEAK CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING VICINITY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT.  S OF FRONT...ACROSS NRN FL
...DAYTIME HEATING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE 80F WHICH
ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S PROVIDES SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY(MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG) TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...PRECLUDES A CONCERN FOR
SEVERE STORMS. STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FAR SWRN TX AND SRN NM
FOR TONIGHT AS COMBINATION OF MOIST WSWLY SRN BRANCH COMBINES WITH
LOW LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SELY FLOW.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER WITH AID OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF
S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND SRN CA/NRN BAJA THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK.

..HALES.. 02/23/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM