[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231258
SWODY1
SPC AC 231256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM WILL BECOME DOMINANT JET ACROSS THE NATION THIS PERIOD
...WITH STRONGEST PART OF SRN BRANCH CONTINUING TO EDGE E INTO THE
ATLANTIC.  A TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS...
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESE AND AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT UPON REACHING WRN NEW ENG
EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE COLD FRONT OVER GA AND THE
CAROLINAS SWD/EWD INTO FL AND THE ATLANTIC.

WRN PART OF FRONT AFFECTING THE SERN U.S. SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY
OVER NE MEXICO TODAY.  IT LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO REFORM NWD WITH TIME
AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKS IN WAKE OF GRT LKS TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF
SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE NOW OFF NRN BAJA.

...N FL...
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CONVERGENCE...WILL REMAIN WEAK
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED.  HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY REACHES MAXIMUM DEPTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...W TX/SRN NM...
SEVERAL WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE DATA
ATTM...UPSTREAM FROM FAR W TX/SRN NM.  SHALLOW COOL DOME AND CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LOW LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.  BUT HEATING
OF HIGHER TERRAIN MAY YIELD A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY DRIFT NE INTO THE
U.S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CLOUD TOPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO YIELD
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

..CORFIDI.. 02/23/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM