[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151950
SWODY1
SPC AC 151949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ONGOING IN WAKE OF
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE /CENTER OF WHICH IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS/. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...BUT
SLOW MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  TONGUE OF MID 50S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED
INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS.  THOUGH SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY.

...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
WARMING LOW/MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAP MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL REMAIN WEAKER THROUGH PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ELEVATED LEADING EDGE OF BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY
APPEARS TO HAVE SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...
WHERE WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS/DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 16/03-06Z TIME FRAME.

...LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT APPROACH OF
VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS STILL PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT.  LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT...IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK
DEVELOPING EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...IS PROGGED INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.  THIS COULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SEEM MOST LIKELY ABOVE SHARP
FRONTAL INVERSION...NEAR STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGER CAPE AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT CAPPING SEEMS LIKELY TO HOLD ACROSS THIS
REGION UNTIL AFTER 16/12Z.

..KERR.. 02/15/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM