[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151603
SWODY1
SPC AC 151601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDS FROM CA ENEWD THRU GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING QUICKLY IN
THE STRONG FLOW AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION CROSSES CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ALONG CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER WILL FILL AND
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE E.  STRONGER
SURFACE LOW SRN UT TRACKS TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT.

FRONTAL ZONE FROM OHIO VALLEY THRU THE PLAINS SURFACE LOW WILL SHOW
LITTLE OVERALL SWD MOVEMENT AS PRESSURES FALL CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH.

MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD FROM ERN TX/LA INTO
LOWER MO VALLEY AND THIS PROCESS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU FORECAST
PERIOD.

COMBINATION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE AND
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TONIGHT PORTIONS OF LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS.  WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7C/KM AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAPES AOA 500
J/KG A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL HAIL THREAT.

..HALES.. 02/15/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM