[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110057
SWODY1
SPC AC 110055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 NNE MFE 50 ENE
CRP 20 SW LCH ESF 40 NW JAN 30 SW 0A8 30 S AUO 25 SW ABY 50 SSE TLH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FEATURES W COAST RIDGE
AND MEAN TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL/ERN CONUS FLOW FIELDS.  PRIMARY
FEATURE WILL REMAIN LARGE CYCLONE ALOFT -- CENTER OF WHICH NOW IS
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF SUX. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD ALONG AND JUST E OF MO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...TOWARD SRN IA AND NRN MO.  AS THIS OCCURS...VORTICITY
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVELY TILTED SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER
NERN MEX AND S-CENTRAL TX WILL ELONGATE ENE-WSW. NRN PORTION OF
LATTER PERTURBATION WILL MOVE EWD ALONG UPPER TX/LA COAST AND
WEAKEN.

ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER SE TX IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS SRN AL OVERNIGHT.  INTENSE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD FROM
LOW...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS LA AND MUCH OF NWRN GULF.  SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT FROM NEAR S-CENTRAL LA COAST SEWD TO
VICINITY BUOY 42003...OR ABOUT 225 NM SSW AAF. THIS BOUNDARY
DIFFUSELY DEMARCATES SOME IMMATURELY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR
CHARACTERIZING FL AND ERN GULF FROM SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST MARINE
TRANSFORMATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER S-CENTRAL/WRN GULF.

...GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN FRONTALLY FORCED LINE FROM
SRN MS SWWD TO JUST OFFSHORE MID/UPPER TX COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD/SEWD OVER GULF AND REMAINDER LA/MS COASTAL
REGION WITH INTERMITTENT/MRGL SEVERE POTENTIAL.  REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 123 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS.

OVERNIGHT POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION...AND RELATED
PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...STRONGLY DEPENDS ON POSITION OF
MARINE FRONT RELATIVE TO COAST.  EVEN THEN...AIR MASS TO ITS SW WILL
NOT BE FULLY ADJUSTED TO STATE OF OPEN-GULF/AIR-SEA
EQUILIBRIUM...LEAVING SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F OVER
COASTAL WATERS PASSED BY THIS FRONT.  WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES --
EVIDENT IN LIX/LCH RAOBS AT 00Z -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO
LIMITED BUOYANCY.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE PARCELS
MAY REACH SFC IN AIR MASS SW OF MARINE FRONT...HOWEVER...AND LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT ROTATION IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR
LEWP/BOW CONFIGURATIONS THAT CAN DEVELOP.  THEREFORE...POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUST OR ROGUE TORNADO NEAR COAST CANNOT BE CATEGORICALLY
ELIMINATED.  WILL MAINTAIN MRGL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM WITHOUT
CATEGORICAL AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 02/11/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM