[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110509
SWODY1
SPC AC 110508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW PNS 25 SSE TOI
VDI 40 SE CHS ...CONT... 50 NNE MLB 55 WSW PBI 40 ESE MTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGH INVOF MS
VALLEY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER W COAST STATES. PRIMARY
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- EVIDENT ATTM IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR OMA.  THIS LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP EWD
TOWARD OH BY 12/00Z...WHILE CURRENT CENTER BECOMES PART OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD WRN TN. 
ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED SRN AL SWWD ACROSS NWRN
GULF ATTM -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF GULF...FL...GA AND
CAROLINAS THROUGH PERIOD.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN TUNE WITH VIGOROUS E
COAST CYCLOGENESIS...WITH DEEP SFC LOW PROGGED E OF DELMARVA AND S
OF LONG ISLAND BY END OF PERIOD.  MARINE WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM
NEAR MS RIVER MOUTH SEWD PAST BUOY 42003 -- SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRUSH COASTAL AREAS OF FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN
PERIOD.

...COASTAL WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...
BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT INVOF COLD FRONT -- FROM SRN AL ACROSS
SERN LA -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING E ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
GULF COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MORNING.  WITH MEAN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
BARELY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...BUOYANCY WILL BE MARGINAL AND
ELEVATED OVER MOST OF REGION...PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES 
EXCEPT ALONG SMALL PART OF FL PANHANDLE COAST BEFORE ABOUT 11/18Z. 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT STRONG WAA ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE
NEAR SFC LAYER N OF MARINE FRONT...AND DECREASING SLOPE/DEPTH OF
FRONTAL SFC.  THIS MAY RESULT IN EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTING CLOSE TO
GROUND LEVEL...CAUSING MARGINAL PROBABILITY FOR TORNADO OR DAMAGING
GUST AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. 
HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO
WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 02/11/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM