[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101955
SWODY1
SPC AC 101953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E CRP 10 N NIR 30
ESE BAZ 45 SSE CRS 15 W SHV 35 SSW GLH 35 NNE MEI 30 E TOI 15 S ABY
50 WSW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST...
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH
LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ON THE UPPER TX COAST AND 100+ NM S OF
LA AT MID-AFTN.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AS
THE UPSTREAM PLAINS TROUGH DIGS SWD...ADVECTING THE MODIFIED CP AIR
MASS FURTHER NWD TO ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT.

DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED STORMS
ALL DAY ACROSS ERN TX. STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO
ROOT INTO THE INCREASING UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WHERE MLCAPES WERE 250-500 J/KG.  THE
CAP HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG...THOUGH...AND ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTENING TO ERASE CINH
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS.  VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL
SHEARS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.  BUT... PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY.

LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW...NOW ANALYZED OVER THE MIDDLE TX
COAST...WILL TRANSLATE/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  TRACK OF
THE LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. 
SO...DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS/TORNADOES...WEAKER
LAPSE RATES /COMPARED TO UPSTREAM OVER TX/ AND MINIMAL BUOYANCY 
WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.  A STRONGER STORM MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO LATER TONIGHT AS
FAR EAST AS COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL...BUT THREATS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..RACY.. 02/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM