[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101620
SWODY1
SPC AC 101618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRP 35 SSW JCT
35 NNW BWD 35 E DAL 15 SSE LIT 35 NNE UOX 20 NW GAD 20 NE ANB 15 ESE
LGC 10 SSE ABY 50 WSW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF SRN BRANCH S/WV NOW MOVING INTO W TX AND THE COLD UPPER
LOW DROPPING SEWD THRU THE CENTRAL U.S. IS UNDERWAY.  THIS WILL LEAD
TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW VICINITY UPPER TX COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW THEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS GULF STATES TONIGHT.

ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN FROM WESTERN GULF HAS SPREAD LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS ONSHORE TX COAST THIS AM.  AS PRESSURE FALLS SPREAD EWD
ACROSS GULF STATES SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INLAND GIVEN LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN GULF COASTAL
AREAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.  A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON SERN TX...PARTICULARLY COASTAL AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE GIVEN THE
MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

OVERNIGHT THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST
 AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN LA/SRN MS AND AL. STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE COASTAL AREAS MAINTAINING A POTENTIAL FOR 
ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER RISK OF SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE
EXPECTED VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..HALES.. 02/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM