[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101227
SWODY1
SPC AC 101225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SE ELP BGS 35 ENE
ABI 35 E DAL 25 WNW ELD 35 W UOX HSV RMG 30 ESE LGC 35 WSW ABY 15
WSW AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF CO/KS/NEB.  THESE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...RESULTING IN RAPID
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DUE TO RECENT SURGES OF COLD/DRY AIR DEEP
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TX INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.

...TX/LA GULF COAST TO FL PANHANDLE...
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF EAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THIS MORNING.  THIS MOISTURE
IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...LEADING TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX. 
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT...
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
 MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 60S
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CRP AREA INTO SOUTHERN LA THROUGH
THE DAY.  MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.  VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL THREAT.  THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE.

..HART.. 02/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM