[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100556
SWODY1
SPC AC 100555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST THU FEB 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SE ELP BGS MWL FTW
DAL 40 SE PRX HOT LIT MEM MSL HSV RMG ATL MCN VLD 50 WSW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS FCST TO
REINFORCE PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  STRONG NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SMALL EMBEDDED CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF ND/MN BORDER -- IS FCST TO DIG
GENERALLY SSEWD WITH CYCLONE CENTER BETWEEN NERN MO AND CENTRAL IL
BY END OF PERIOD.  AS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...UPPER LOW NOW OVER NWRN MEX WILL
OPEN...DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NERN MEX AND SRN TX EARLY
IN PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THEN WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS NWRN GULF OVERNIGHT...LOSING MOST OF ITS DEFINITION AMIDST
TIGHTENING HEIGHT/FLOW GRADIENTS THAT WILL RESULT FROM MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY CYCLONE.

STRONG SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WRN MO
-- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD TOWARD TX COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. 
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NE TX IN RESPONSE TO
APCHG SRN STREAM TROUGH...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING EWD TO
VICINITY ERN AL/SWRN GA BY 11/12Z.  MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN AND N-CENTRAL GULF.

...TX COASTAL PLAIN...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BY 10/18Z OVER MID/UPPER TX COASTAL
AREA...AN EWD SHIFT/EXTENSION OF ELEVATED THUNDER REGIME NOW EVIDENT
OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA.  WAA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL DPVA...AMIDST CONTINUING
MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK CINH...SHOULD LEAD TO MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG
OVER PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SFC
FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 60-70 KT INDICATED IN FCST SOUNDINGS.

MAIN CONCERN ATTM -- WHICH IS PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK
-- IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION...A CONDITION ASSOCIATED
BOTH WITH PARTLY MODIFIED RETURN AIR MASS AND LIKELIHOOD OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP REINFORCING NEAR-SFC STABILITY FOR MUCH OF DAY. 
INCOMPLETE STAGE OF MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN
CURRENT W GULF SFC OBS OF 50S F DEW POINTS...AND IN CHARACTER OF
MARINE STRATOCU FIELD APPARENT IN LAST VIS IMAGERY AND CURRENT IR. 
CLOUD BREAKS AND POCKETS OF SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE...HOWEVER...AND AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE INFLUENCING
MESOSCALE CLOUD/PRECIP PATTERNS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

...LA TO FL PANHANDLE...
EXPECT BLEND OF PREFRONTAL/CLUSTERED CONVECTIVE REGIME AND FRONTALLY
FORCED LINE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS LA WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE
GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...AND LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE GIVEN PROGGED GEOMETRY OF
DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES COMPARED TO ALIGNMENT OF MAIN FORCING
BOUNDARY.  STILL...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN
FCST WIND PROFILES CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES FROM EITHER BOW
ECHO CIRCULATIONS OR PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS.  PROBABILITY WOULD JUMP
INTO CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CRITERIA GIVEN JUST SLGTLY MORE NEARLY
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY NEAR COAST THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.  UPGRADE MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL/SRN GULF COAST AS
WELL...PARTICULARLY AL COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...IF NARROW SLIVER
OF MOST STRONGLY MODIFIED MARINE AIR REACHES COAST DURING
11/06Z-11/12Z TIME FRAME.

..EDWARDS.. 02/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM