[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091301
SWODY1
SPC AC 091300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP CNM BGS ABI
35 SSE FTW 45 NNE CLL 50 S CLL 15 SSE SAT 55 ESE DRT 10 SSE DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH SPLIT
BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES MERGING INTO BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME HAVE STABILIZED
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT REINFORCING INTRUSION OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE PLAINS IS
LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
STATES TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS
TOWARD NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTAL UPPER RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERN BRANCH
CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST OF BAJA.  MODELS SUGGEST
LATTER FEATURE WILL PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS BIG BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED
AND MERGING INTO STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST.

...TEXAS...
DRY/STABLE SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOB DATA
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BY LATE TONIGHT. AT LOWER  LEVELS...THIS WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INLAND ADVECTION OF MOISTENING WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE
PROFILES FROM TOP DOWN.  WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT NEAR CORE OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN
STREAM CIRCULATION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE BIG
BEND REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS THIS FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 02/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM