[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090513
SWODY1
SPC AC 090511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST WED FEB 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 70 SSW SJT SJT
SEP CRS 50 SSE CRS CLL 45 WNW VCT LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BASIC MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST AND ERN STATES TROUGH. 
HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER PROBABILITIES LATE...COMPARED TO PROHIBITIVELY
DRY/STABLE AIR MASS NOW OVER CONUS.  STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK -- WILL
DIG SEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT
FALLS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THIS
OCCURS...MID/UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW CUT OFF OVER BAJA SPUR AMIDST
PREVAILING REX PATTERN -- IS FCST TO ACCELERATE EWD FROM MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.  THIS FEATURE WILL LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE...BECOMING
POSITIVELY TILED AND OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN
MEX AND FAR W TX.

INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM PERTURBATION --
WILL PLUNGE SWD ALONG FAVORED HIGH PLAINS CORRIDOR TO NEAR PERMIAN
BASIN OF W TX BY 10/12Z...EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH ARKLATEX REGION
THEN NNEWD INTO SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR LS SHORELINE OF WI.  LOW LEVEL
WAA REGIME WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND ATOP STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PRECEDE FROPA THROUGH 10/12Z.

...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT --
MAINLY DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED
MOIST/UNSTABLE LAYER.  MRGL MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP AS
PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS ADVECTS NWWD OFF WRN GULF...FOLLOWING
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVING TRAJECTORIES INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL TX ALONG
ASCENDING ISENTROPIC SURFACES. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY RAISE PARCELS TO
LFC...RESULTING IN TSTMS.  VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ROOTED INVOF
850 MB -- ALONG AND W OF 35-45 KT LLJ. LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 200
J/KG...PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE UNTIL AFTER END
OF PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 02/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM