[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061245
SWODY1
SPC AC 061244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BPT 20 ESE POE
MLU 20 W GLH 30 WSW UOX 25 W MSL 20 SSE CHA 35 SW OGB 20 NNE SSI 55
E AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR
SHV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW
EXTENDING ROUGHLY E-W FROM NRN LA INTO SRN GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH EXTENSIVE ELEVATED
CONVECTION REINFORCING COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS NORTH.  AS
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD AND
MOVE ACROSS SRN MS/SERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  NARROW TONGUE OF
LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NWRN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH GFS AND RUC BRING NEWD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO SRN LA/FAR SRN MS TODAY.  NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...AS IT FALSELY
INITIALIZED 65+F SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG
WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KT OVERSPREADING MODEST WARM SECTOR
TODAY. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TIED TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO GENERATE EVEN
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TODAY...WHICH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING
VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR
ACROSS MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING COLD
FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS.. 02/06/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM