[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060534
SWODY1
SPC AC 060533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E BVE 15 NNW BTR
35 W MLU 30 NE ELD 35 ENE PBF 10 SW UOX 30 WNW BHM 40 NNW MCN 40 NNW
SAV 20 S SAV 20 WSW SSI 40 NNW GNV 55 WSW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ONGOING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE AR AND NRN MS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD DURING THE
DAY AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE...THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND FROM ENE
TO WSW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE STORMS MAY TRANSITION FROM AN
ELEVATED NATURE TO MORE CLOSELY SFC-BASED IF THE CONVECTION CAN MOVE
AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR 60 F. HOWEVER...THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORECAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
DOING SO AND MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SEWD. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY OR OVER THE EDGE OF THE COOL
DOME. IF THE STORMS CAN MOVE OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD INTO SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE

..BROYLES.. 02/06/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM