[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060050
SWODY1
SPC AC 060049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ESF 20 S IER
35 SSW SHV 30 NNW GGG 40 W DEQ 10 NNE RKR 30 N RUE 30 SSW JBR 30 NNE
TUP 30 E CBM 45 SSW TCL 35 S MEI 15 WSW PIB 30 W MCB 20 ESE ESF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL
DIG SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT SPREADING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING WAVE...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 60 KT
WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. INITIATION APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 06Z IN SRN AR AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS. STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE QUICKLY DRIFTING SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
THE SFC TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND
DRIFT SEWD INTO MS LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/06/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM