[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050034
SWODY1
SPC AC 050033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ILM 35 N AVC 25
WSW AOO 20 E BFD 30 NNW ITH 55 WNW GFL 20 NNE RUT 50 ESE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-ATLANTIC...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN US IS SPREADING
VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ATTM. THIS COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CNTRL VA. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
BEHIND THE LINE. AS THE BAND OF STRONG ASCENT DRIFTS EWD...THE LINE
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MD INTO NJ THIS EVENING.

THE LINE OF STORMS IS BEING FUELED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 55 TO 60
F RANGE WITH A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS ERN VA.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING A WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS A RESULT...HAIL
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

..BROYLES.. 02/05/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM