[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 042001
SWODY1
SPC AC 041959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
CHS 25 SE FLO 20 SSW SOP 20 NNE GSO 25 NE ROA 35 ENE CHO 15 E NHK 45
SSE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 3TH 25 SSE SMN
15 SW IDA 30 NNW OGD 20 SE ENV 25 NNE U31 30 SSW WMC 45 SW REO BNO
35 N RDM 25 NNW DLS EAT 30 SSW 63S 55 WNW 3TH 40 S 3TH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE SAV 10 W FLO
35 SSW GSO 15 N BLF 45 ENE CRW 25 WNW PIT ERI 15 NW ROC 40 E ART MPV
40 ESE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EYW 40 SSE PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF
VA/NC...

...ERN NC/VA...
100+ KT SLY H5 WIND MAX ALONG BASE OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO CNTRL NC/VA AT MID-AFTN AND WAS SUPPORTING SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN NC.  THIS LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS HAVE EVOLVED.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE NWD WITH 58-63F SURFACE DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG/S OF THE
WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL VA TO SRN DE.  HEATING HAS BEEN
MINIMAL TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO CLOUDS...BUT STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT HAVE BEEN ADVANCING EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NEWD INTO ERN VA.  

A THIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
ALONG A FRONT FROM CNTRL WV SWD INTO CNTRL NC. COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND THIS CONVECTION
SOMEWHAT...BUT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE LINE LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE.  THUS... CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY INTO A STRONGER LINE OF TSTMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL/ERN VA AND ERN NC LATE THIS AFTN.  VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE WAS QUITE STRONG...AND UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE AS
BUOYANCY REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK.  BUT...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER SUSTAINED STORMS LATE AFTN-EVE...CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE THREATS.  THE HIGHEST
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM
NCNTRL/NERN NC INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA.  THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY
SPREAD FARTHER NWD INTO SERN PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT...WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT AS FAR N AS
CNTRL NJ/EXTREME SERN PA.  

...SRN FL...
PRE-FRONTAL LINEAR MCS HAS LARGELY CLEARED SRN FL...LESSENING SEVERE
RISKS. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT
MID-AFTN...BUT STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND
DECREASED MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PARENT FRONT WILL PRECLUDE
TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..RACY.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM