[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041625
SWODY1
SPC AC 041623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
CHS 30 SSW OGB 30 ESE SPA 25 ENE HKY 25 SE ROA 45 ENE CHO 15 ESE NHK
40 SSE WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
APF 30 ENE PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW 63S 40 E P69
55 S SMN 15 NNE OWY 20 SSE MFR 40 WSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CTY 20 NNE JAX
10 SSW SAV 20 E AND 20 E TRI 40 WNW EKN FKL 25 NNE JHW 30 E ROC 30
ENE UCA 20 WNW ORH 55 NE HYA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
SE VA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SE FL AND THE
KEYS....

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 90-100 KT 500 MB JET WILL LIFT NNEWD
OVER THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 995 MB SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES ACROSS SW ONTARIO BY
TONIGHT.  S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD AND
OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.  ELSEWHERE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...CAROLINAS/VA AREA...
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD INTO SE VA...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD/THICK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS/VA...AND ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS
POSSIBLE TODAY.  THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE A NARROW SWATH BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS THE ERN CAROLINAS/VA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS TODAY.

...GA/FL AREA...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST AROUND MIDDAY...AND ACROSS
ALL OF THE FL PENINSULA BY ABOUT 00Z.  A NARROW BAND OF
FORCED/SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA AND
NRN/CENTRAL FL TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND IMPACT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM THREAT.  AN UNCONTAMINATED MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER SE FL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 F.  EXPECT THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS SE FL
AND THE KEYS BY 18-20Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM