[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041242
SWODY1
SPC AC 041241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
AAF 20 NE MGR 50 S AHN 20 N AHN 15 ENE AVL 30 WNW DAN BWI ILG 55 SE
NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW OMK 40 NW EAT
40 N DLS 35 WNW RDM 15 NW MFR 70 SW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 30 WSW MGR
MCN 30 ESE ATL 10 E TYS 35 ENE JKL 25 ENE PKB 15 S DUJ 25 SSE ELM 45
N MSV 20 WNW ORH 50 E BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
SURFACE LOW NOW DEEPENING OVER FAR ERN KY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD
ALONG THE RIM OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS NWD AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.  AT THE SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE OFF THE SC/GA COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD TO JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS MODEST WARM SECTOR...WITH ADDITION OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT CHS.  PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE HEATING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS REGION WILL LIKELY NEED TO HEAT
INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER 70S TO BECOME TRULY SURFACE BASED.  GIVEN
TIMING OF FRONT AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE HARD TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT ASCENT AND FRONTAL LIFT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME
NEARLY SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS/FL LATER THIS MORNING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH STRONGER STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
LINES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT ALSO REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WITH
WARM FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE AT 12Z NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. 
PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AND VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT TO MIX/LIFT
QUICKLY NWD TODAY.  THUS...THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS NEAR 60F SURFACE
DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

..EVANS.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM