[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040604
SWODY1
SPC AC 040603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
AAF 20 SSW VLD 20 S VDI 25 E AGS 20 E CLT 15 W DAN 45 S CHO 30 SW
NHK 45 ESE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NNW OMK 40 NW EAT
40 N DLS 35 WNW RDM 15 NW MFR 70 SW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 30 WSW MGR
35 S MCN 30 SSE AHN 15 ESE AVL 15 WSW BKW 35 NW EKN 25 SSE DUJ 30
NNW IPT 30 NW MSV 30 ENE POU 30 WSW ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL THROUGH THE PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AS A
STRONG IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NEWD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC.
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
THE SERN STATES AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT TRIES TO DEVELOPS INLAND
ACROSS ERN NC INTO VA.

...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...

THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR INLAND WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN GA INTO SC EARLY SATURDAY CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AS IT INTERCEPTS BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS
AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF
STREAM TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM MAY LIMIT OVERALL
QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH NEWD EJECTING IMPULSE WILL SPREAD EWD AND INTERCEPT THE
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL
LIMITING FACTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED LINES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.


...FL...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
ACROSS FL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON A
LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION IN THIS AREA. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD
DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO VEER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE N. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
WIND PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS WITHIN THIS LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS OR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DIAL.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM