[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040051
SWODY1
SPC AC 040049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
MIA 35 NW MTH ...CONT... 85 E BVE 20 S MOB 45 N MOB 45 SE MEI 45 WSW
0A8 TCL 25 NE TCL 10 WNW BHM 25 SW GAD 15 ENE ANB 10 S ATL 35 S AHN
40 W AGS 30 ENE AGS 15 N OGB 25 SSW FLO 20 NNW ILM 35 NE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 35 WNW SEA
40 S OLM 10 WNW PDX 10 S SLE EUG 25 ESE OTH 40 WNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW HUM 15 E MSY
15 SSE PIB 15 NE MEI 25 NW TCL 30 SW HSV 40 NNE HSV 10 W CSV 40 ESE
LOZ 20 E SSU 45 W NHK 50 E SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES
AND FL...

...SERN STATES...

A BOUNDARY SEPARATING RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
FROM PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR EXTENDS FROM THE NERN GULF SEWD
INTO SRN FL WHERE IT BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITHIN A MYRIAD OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. N OF THIS BOUNDARY...EVENING RAOB
DATA SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE MUCAPE. THE INSTABILITY
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO SRN GA. THE SLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING OVER THE NERN
GULF INTO CNTRL/NRN FL AND GA WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND NWD ADVANCE OF THE MARINE BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SO FAR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND THE STORMS
BECOME CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FROM PARTS OF NRN FL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA.

FARTHER WEST...A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW
ECHOES PERSISTS ACROSS WRN AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD
TONIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT. THESE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD WITH TIME AS RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...STORMS ON THE SRN END OF MCS THAT CAN DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

..DIAL.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM