[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 032004
SWODY1
SPC AC 032002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
BVE 10 NNE MSY 30 W BTR 35 SE POE 25 ENE POE 45 ENE MLU 40 SSW GWO
40 NE MEI 15 NNE CSG 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 45
NNE PBI 50 SSW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 45 SE LFK
50 NE LFK 15 ESE SHV 35 WSW LLQ 25 SSW MEM 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40
NNW SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY EWD INTO
THE SERN STATES...

...LWR MS VLY EWD INTO THE DEEP S...
MID-AFTN MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ARCING FROM
THE MID-MS VLY SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LA THEN WWD INTO SCNTRL TX.  A WEAK
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN MS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO CNTRL FL.  THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
EXTENDED EWD ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MS...AL...GA AND THE ERN
CAROLINAS.  

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MS DELTA.  THIS MAY BE AIDING ONGOING TSTMS
IN THE LWR MS VLY.  SO FAR...LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN THE MAIN THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE REGION.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS/JET STREAK OVER CNTRL TX TRANSLATES EWD.  THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON THE MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE LAST
NIGHT/S ACTIVITY ACTED TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  BUT...GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/MIXING...AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND
SUPPORT TSTMS. THUS...APPROACHING/DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS
VLY MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SRN MS/ERN LA
EWD INTO AL AND WRN FL PNHDL.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL.  TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE
LEWPS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. 
HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED VCNTY TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW.  
 
...SERN STATES...
A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS
OF FL NEWD INTO SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.  WARM
CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCING BY THIS
EVENING.  NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD RESULT...BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED. CNTRL FL MCS HAS MAINTAINED
A SUBSTANTIAL COLD DOME ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS MAY GRADUALLY ERODE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL SSWLY FLOW INCREASES
TO 40-45 KTS.  THOUGH TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ACROSS
EXTREME NRN FL...SRN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS...THE PROBABILITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS CNTRL FL WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD MODIFY.  INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50-60
KTS OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL.  HIGHER THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL
BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF CNTRL FL WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY.

..RACY.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM