[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031632
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
BVE 15 NE MSY 15 N BTR POE 30 NW POE 35 SSE SHV 30 E SHV 45 SSW GLH
15 NNW MEI 10 W MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM ...CONT... 35 NE VRB 50
SSW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 30 NNE UTS
15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 20 SSE DEQ 30 NNE PBF 15 SW MKL 50 SW LOZ 40 NNW
SSU 35 S DCA 55 ESE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
LA/MS EWD TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST....

...SE STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TX/OK WILL MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA/MS ALONG AN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE
OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OVER PA.  THIS FRONT SHOULD
LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA TODAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
DEEPEN...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F IN THE WARM SECTOR.
 

THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EJECTING NEWD
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL.  A LINEAR CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE GULF WAVE...AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW GENERATED BY THESE STORMS IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. 
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WNWWD TO NEAR THE LA DELTA...AND THE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO AREAS OF FL AND THE OPEN
GULF S OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTRAL FL STORMS
SHOULD TEND TO REDUCE THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS N FL THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NRN LA AND
SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS MS IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL
TROUGH.  DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL
L0W-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE L0W-MID 50S MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  FARTHER E/SE...GRADUAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM SE LA INTO SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.  HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG/.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO INCREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SRN
LA...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING
INVOF THE NE GULF COAST.

..THOMPSON.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM