[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031233
SWODY1
SPC AC 031232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
MLB 55 WSW FMY ...CONT... 25 ESE BVE 25 SE MCB 40 NW PIB 15 NNE MEI
MCN 30 SSE FLO 55 ESE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 30 NNE UTS
15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 10 SE DEQ 25 ENE MSL 25 SSW NHK 55 ESE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
12Z OBSERVED DATA AND OVERNIGHT MODELS SUGGEST MAINTAINING CURRENT
SLGT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  THOUGH
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT HAS ESTABLISHED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN FL INTO THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO...STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MODIFICATION TO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION
BY LATER TODAY.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OR RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS
MORNING OVER THE NERN GULF INTO NRN/CENTRAL FL ONCE HEATING
OVERCOMES WEAK NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION.  12Z SOUNDING FROM TBW
INDICATES AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED THIS MORNING...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE /I.E. 58 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 250+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/.  THUS...SEVERE
THREAT MAY INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING INTO CENTRAL FL...THOUGH SWD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE UNDERCUTTING EWD MOVING STORMS.
 ONCE OUTFLOW STALLS...TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS
STORMS MOVE ENEWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE.

OTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
FARTHER WEST INTO SRN MS/FAR SRN AL WITHIN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE
OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SERN
U.S. OVERNIGHT.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
TODAY WITH WSWLY H5 WINDS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH 90+ KT MID LEVEL
JET ROUNDING BASE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
THEREFORE...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO
SUPERCELLS/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR SURFACE WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
ACROSS NRN FL/FAR SRN GA.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN/MID LEVELS COOL.

..EVANS.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM