[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030555
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
MLB 55 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 50 SSW BVE 25 SE MSY 25 SE MCB 40 NW PIB
25 W MEI 45 WSW 0A8 20 NNW MGM AUO MCN 45 SW AGS 30 ESE AGS 25 ENE
OGB 30 SSE FLO 30 SSW ILM 55 ESE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
20 SSE SLE 40 S EUG 25 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 7R4 10 SW BPT
30 NNE UTS 15 WSW TYR 30 S PRX 10 SE DEQ 15 SSE HOT 20 NNE UOX 30 N
HSV 20 W TYS 25 S BLF 35 SSW CHO 25 SSW NHK 55 ESE WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES AND FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVES SEWD INTO ITS BASE.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER LA WITHIN THE DIVERGENT EXIT
REGION OF THE STRONG UPPER JET EARLY FRIDAY THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD
THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN THE PROCESS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
GULF MAY  LIFT NWD ONTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WARM FRONT MAY FORM FARTHER INLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS.


...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND NRN FL
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...RICHER
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF MARINE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. ONGOING
CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO
MOVE FARTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND NRN FL.
DESPITE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER W INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INITIALLY IN POST FRONTAL REGION AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND LA. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. THOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.


OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR IN ZONE OF DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WHETHER THESE STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE
BASED. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY MOISTEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE INTO SRN AL
AND SRN GA. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE CNTRL/NERN GULF COASTAL
AREA INTO NRN AND CNTRL FL. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM