[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030043
SWODY1
SPC AC 030041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
PFN 20 NE TLH AYS 15 WNW SSI 15 S SSI 15 NNW SGJ 30 E GNV 25 W OCF
75 WNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE PNS 30 ENE MAI
20 WNW VDI 30 NNE OGB 30 NNE FAY 25 ENE WAL ...CONT... 50 ENE MLB 85
W APF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL INTO EXTREME SERN
GA...

...NRN FL INTO EXTREME SERN GA...

A LARGE LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL AND INTO THE
NERN GULF. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN
THIS MCS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAS
ADVECTED NEWD INTO NRN FL. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...STORMS
ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS ARE CLOSE TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z JACKSONVILLE RAOB. INSTABILITY REMAINS
MARGINAL HOWEVER OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. LATEST VWP DATA SHOWS A
STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN FL CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE
MCS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND TRAINING NEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MCS
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM