[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 022000
SWODY1
SPC AC 021959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
PFN 30 NNW AAF 10 NNE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW JAX 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW
PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF
...CONT... 40 SE PNS 10 ESE DHN 30 SW AUO 25 SSW SEM 20 NNE PIB 40
NNE HEZ 25 W MLU 15 N ELD 25 SW LIT 25 SE BVX 30 WSW DYR 25 ENE DYR
25 SW CKV 25 E BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E
CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN
GULF COASTAL AREA...

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
THOUGH THE STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE HAD TRANSLATED NEWD INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS IN TANDEM WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...A RESIDUAL BAND OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE ERN GULF BASIN INTO THE FL PNHDL THIS AFTN. 
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF WARM/UNSTABLE PARCELS FEEDING INTO THE EXISTING
BAND OF TSTMS /SRN PORTION OF MORNING SQUALL LINE/ HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF CELLS FROM THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO THE
NERN GULF BASIN.  VWP FROM TLH SHOWS A LONG HODOGRAPH WITH
SIGNIFICANT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.  BUT...MARINE FRONT MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NWRN
FL/ERN FL PNHDL THIS EVENING SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS.  SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP OFFSHORE WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE
QUICKLY INTO BOW ECHO/LINE SEGMENTS...THEN TEND TO NOT HAVE A LONG
LIFE CYCLE OVER LAND.  DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NWRN FL.

...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS...
GIVEN BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE OH VLY
IMPULSE...AIR MASS WAS GRADUALLY MODIFYING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
OF GA/CAROLINAS.  BUT...THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL. THUS...NRN PARTS OF THE RESIDUAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND GA
OVERNIGHT.  NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
JUSTIFY LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD
TORNADOES.

...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...
A BAND OR TWO OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE/FRONT.  WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS SURFACE
HEATING IS KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND MASS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

..RACY.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM