[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021627
SWODY1
SPC AC 021625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
PFN 25 SW MAI 35 SW ABY 45 NE MGR 30 WSW JAX 30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS DHN 25 WSW
AUO 40 SSE BHM 25 W MEI 40 S MLU 20 E SHV 45 NNW GGG 10 W MLC 25 NE
FSM 30 S UNO 35 NW DYR 40 SSE PAH BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY
30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB 30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY
...CONT... 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN GA AND
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE VIGOROUS S/WV TROF
INITIALLY LOWER MS VALLEY LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD REACHING MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN MS EXPECTED
TO UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT.

THE STRONG OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY THE LWR MS VALLEY S/WV
TROUGH IS NOW WEAKENING OVER SWRN GA SWWD INTO NERN GULF AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  THE S/WV IS MOVING
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SOURCE OF STILL FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NERN GULF. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN A LOW END THREAT OF WIND
DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PART OF S GA AND
ERN FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A LOW END THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE TONIGHT
CAROLINA COAST AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COUPLED  WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

COLD AIR ALOFT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF LOWER MS VALLEY.  PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AS MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE SRN AR INTO NRN MS
PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR.

..HALES.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM