[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021255
SWODY1
SPC AC 021253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
BVE 40 S MOB 35 NNE MOB 30 NW GZH TOI 15 WNW ABY 25 N VLD 35 N GNV
30 SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF
...CONT... 30 SSE BVE 35 SSW MOB 40 SSW PIB 30 SE ESF 30 NE IER 25
WSW LLQ 20 ESE HOT 25 SW RKR MKO 20 ESE UMN 35 SW FAM 20 ESE POF 40
NNE MKL BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 30 NNE DAN 25 E CHO MRB
30 N CXY 20 W ABE 25 SW NEL 50 ESE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
20 E AST 55 W ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST RGN...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN LA UPR VORT SHOULD ACCELERATE NE TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS
PERIOD WHILE A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING IMPULSES SERVE TO CARVE A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S.  SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR KBTR SHOULD LIFT
RAPIDLY NE TO NEAR KERI BY 12Z FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT N INTO CNTRL GA LATER TODAY...AND REDEVELOP NE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC CSTL PLN EARLY FRIDAY. 

...ERN GULF CST TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...
SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS NOW OVER SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO MARK DEEP LAYER WIND SHIFT IN SRN QUADRANT OF EJECTING
UPR TROUGH.  THIS WIND SHIFT...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF ASCENT...
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DISTURBANCE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE GULF CST.  IN ADDITION...RAPID MOTION OF TROUGH SUGGESTS
THAT IT WILL OUTPACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FAR
NERN GULF.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SQLN
AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES E INTO N FL AND GA LATER TODAY. 
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN 40 TO 50 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND THEIR ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.  

...ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP N OF THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKS AND
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  OFFSHORE SURFACE OBS IN
THE WRN ATLANTIC AND SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS
OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS S OF FRONT WILL BE MODIFIED POLAR IN
NATURE.  THUS...DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SQLN
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS NRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SC AND THE ERN HALF OF NC TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE 60-70
KT DEEP SW FLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND WILL POSE A LOW
PROBABILITY THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOWS WITH DAMAGING
WIND...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...NE LA INTO CNTRL/NRN MS/NW AL TODAY...
A BAND OR TWO OF COMPARATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRECEDE WEAKENING UPR VORT CENTER AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE UPR SOUTH TODAY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM