[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020542
SWODY1
SPC AC 020540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S
HUM ASD 30 SE PIB 40 WNW GZH TOI 15 WNW ABY 25 N VLD 45 SE VLD 25
SSE CTY 75 WNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE VRB 70 WSW APF
...CONT... 65 S 7R4 30 NW LFT 25 NNE IER 25 N ELD 15 E LIT 10 S JBR
40 NNE MKL BNA 20 NE CSV 10 NE HSS 45 NNE HKY 25 N DAN 20 W RIC 15 W
WAL 85 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
20 E AST 55 W ONP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN TX IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE SERN STATES AND DEAMPLIFY AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SEWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH AL
INTO THE CNTRL GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT NOW OFFSHORE MAY
MOVE INLAND INTO PARTS OF SRN AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.


...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

AN MCS WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND N OF WARM FRONT. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER MAY PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE STORMS MAY BE CLOSER TO SURFACE BASED. PRIMARY CONCERN
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN INLAND. STRONG 60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD ALONG
THE GULF COASTAL STATES DURING THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD
ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING S OF WARM
FRONT OVER THE W CNTRL GULF. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
MAY SPREAD INLAND TO PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND S OF
WARM FRONT IN WAKE OF MCS BY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST ASCENT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WITH TIME. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG N-S BOUNDARY WITHIN LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE...ESPECIALLY IF HEATING MATERIALIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
ALONG THE SRN END OF THE MCS AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
EVENING. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM