[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020100
SWODY1
SPC AC 020058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE
PSX 35 N PSX 10 S CLL 45 NW UTS 35 N LFK 25 WNW IER 35 WNW HEZ 20 W
PIB 20 N MOB 45 SE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25
WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE CRP 10 NNE VCT
15 NNW BAZ 50 WNW TPL 10 SSE DUA 30 ESE RKR 35 NNE LIT 15 SSW MEM 30
SE CBM 20 ENE GZH 25 SSE AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SERN TX THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR
LAGRANGE TEXAS...SEWD TO JUST S OF HOUSTON THEN INTO THE WRN GULF. A
N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY WITH DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW SWD TO JUST E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE. INFLUX
OF HIGHEST THETA-E AIR HAS SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES INTO PARTS OF SERN TX WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500 TO
1000 J/KG. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS OCCURRED
N OF THE WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER
ASCENT EAST OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH S TX. N OF
THE WARM FRONT...ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A NEAR SURFACE
STABLE LAYER WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF THE CONVECTION ELEVATED AND HAS
SERVED AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED CELLULAR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS THAT ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LATER THIS
EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
FARTHER EAST FROM EXTREME SERN TX INTO SRN LA RESULTING IN THE WARM
FRONT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE WRN GULF
LIFTING NWD. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATER
TONIGHT...A STRONG MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTO COASTAL LA...COINCIDENT WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME STORMS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM