[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 012006
SWODY1
SPC AC 012004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
PSX 40 SSE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 SW TYR 40 WNW IER HEZ 25 W PIB
35 N MOB 40 S PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25
WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 35 NE COT 20
SE JCT 20 NNE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 ESE FSM 25 W BVX 10 NNE MEM 45 S CBM
25 ENE GZH 35 S AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX GULF COAST
TO SRN LA/MS...

...SERN TX/SRN LA-MS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER LA THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG DPVA/LIFT WAS ALREADY ACTING ON MOISTURE
AT THE TOP OF THE CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM EAST OF SAT TO
NORTH OF HOU. EXPECT ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OR TWO
OF HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS NEAR/WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPREAD
NEWD TOWARD THE TXK/SHV AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE
VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND LARGER HAIL...WILL LIKELY OCCUR
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND
INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST FROM VCT NEWD TO WEST OF HOU AS SURFACE
LOW WEST OF VCT DEEPENS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER WARM SECTOR INITIATION
APPEARS LIKELY WHEN CRP 18Z SOUNDING IS ADJUSTED FOR LATEST INFLOW
AIR MASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AS STORMS TAP GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TORNADO AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST FROM VCT THROUGH HOU/GLS AREA.

EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER
LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND AIDS IN
UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS
AS IT SPREADS EWD ALONG THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM