[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011622
SWODY1
SPC AC 011621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
PSX 40 SE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 S TYR 30 W IER HEZ PIB 30 NNE
MOB 40 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25
WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR
25 S JCT 30 E ABI 10 ESE GYI 30 NNW DEQ 55 W MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE
0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN TX EWD ALONG CENTRAL
GULF  COAST...

...SERN TX AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD THRU SWRN
TX IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
RETURN FLOW INTO SRN TX.

SUBSTANTIAL CAP NOTED ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AT 12Z ACROSS SRN TX
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS UNDER THE PROCESSES OF
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONTINUED MOISTENING
AND HEATING LOWER LEVELS AS WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND.

CURRENTLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SCENTRAL TX IN AREA
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS AND UPWARD MOTION
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STORMS TAPPING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
1500 J/KG NEAR THE COAST.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS AS HELICITIES RISE TO ABOVE 200 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE ALONG UPPER TX COAST.

ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SCENTRAL TX DURING AFTERNOON WILL BE
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREATS.

SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TONIGHT AS A
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN TX
INTO SRN LA. WOULD EXPECT STORMS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED PARTICULARLY INLAND AREAS.  LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE
IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..HALES.. 02/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM