[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011300
SWODY1
SPC AC 011258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
PSX 40 SE BAZ 35 W AUS 15 NE TPL 30 S TYR 30 W IER HEZ PIB 30 NNE
MOB 40 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25
WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR
25 S JCT 30 E ABI 10 ESE GYI 30 NNW DEQ 55 W MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE
0A8 30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E CNTRL/SE TX TO THE CNTRL
GULF CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY FAST WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS 
MAIN JET REMAINS OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.  SRN STREAM VORT NOW
OVER FAR W TX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS S TX TODAY...BEFORE
RECURVING ENE TONIGHT AND ASSUMING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO.

SLY FLOW NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY.  DEVELOPING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM S OF KGLS
TO NEAR KLRD SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS THE TX GULF CSTL PLN AS
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY.  THE LOW
SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE ALONG THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LIFTS
N TO THE LA CST.

...SE TX TO CNTRL GULF CST...
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE SUGGESTS THAT
CYCLOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM FROM W TX VORT IS ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR
KLRD.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL S TO SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/
NOW PRESENT OVER THE WRN GULF TO SPREAD NWD INTO SE TX... PERHAPS AS
FAR W/N AS KCLL/KLFK.  SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED
BY BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SUBTROPICAL CONVEYOR.  BUT EVEN WITH
MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WITH
INCREASING ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING UPR VORT SHOULD BOOST
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES TO AOA 1000 J/KG.

STOUT EML DEPICTED ON MORNING RAOB AT KDRT...AND IN MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LIKELY WILL KEEP TX CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.  BUT GIVEN STRENGTH/
EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...AND PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL ASCENT ALONG WARM FRONT...EXPECT THAT SURFACE-BASED INITIATION
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY OVER THE CNTRL TX GULF CSTL PLN.  OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER W /NEAR KAUS/ AS APPROACH OF VORT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT LEAD TO MORE RAPID OVERTURNING.
FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO NE TX/WRN LA AND 
SW AR.

AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP SW TO WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ENLARGED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
NEAR WARM FRONT OVER SE TX AND THE UPR TX GULF CST.  THUS...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO SRN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT. FAR SRN
TRACK OF UPR VORT AND EXISTING COOL AIR MASS OVER THE N CNTRL GULF
SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT THE TX STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  THE STRONGEST PART OF THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MAY REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS THE MCS MOVES E TO NEAR KMOB BY
12Z THURSDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 02/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM