[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010548
SWODY1
SPC AC 010546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
PSX 35 WNW VCT 25 SSW TPL 45 ESE ACT 40 WSW IER 20 SSE ESF 20 SSE
PIB 40 NE MOB 50 SSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 35 E OLM 25
WSW PDX ONP 50 WSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 35 WNW NIR
30 N HDO 40 S BWD 15 SW DAL 40 NE TXK 25 SW MEM 35 NE TUP 25 ENE 0A8
30 SSW DHN 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z GFS/NAM ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY REACHING SRN TX BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING
NEWD TOWARD LA TONIGHT.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  A WARM FRONT/
COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
NOT MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN LA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FAST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE PAC NW COAST TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

...SERN TX TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
TO RETURN NWD. LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED INLAND
ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.  FURTHER STEEPENING OF THESE LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED ATOP
THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CAP
UNTIL EITHER SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND/OR THE
ARRIVAL OF STRONG ASCENT CAN WEAKEN THE CAP FOR TSTM INITIATION.  

SOME SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 800-1200 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS FROM THE
MID/UPPER TX COAST INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALSO ELEVATED
STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS WRN LA.

STORM CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE INITIAL STORM MODES
WITH THE EXPECTED TSTMS.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR
SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN TX.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...AS MODELS SUGGEST A QUASI-LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST
TO POTENTIALLY THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX EWD
ACROSS SRN LA AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 02/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM