[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291947
SWODY1
SPC AC 291945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
BID 10 SSW PVD 10 W BOS 25 WSW PWM 30 ESE BML 85 WNW CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DRT 10 S SAT
10 WNW HOU 30 NNE MSY 10 W LGC 25 WSW DAN 20 S BWI 20 SSW EWR 15 NE
BDR 45 NNE EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE FHU 70 WNW SAD
20 NNW INW 15 ESE U17 25 ESE CNY 15 SSE ASE 35 W COS 25 NW PUB 15 NE
RTN 10 SSE CAO 20 WNW AMA 10 SSE PVW 45 ENE HOB 70 SSE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGLY FORCED...PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN ME INTO ERN
MA/ERN CT AND RI.  ABSENCE OF ANY OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW.  CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS LIMITED AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE.  NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE DYNAMIC
FORCING AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.


...SRN ROCKIES...

LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NM
COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS HAVE RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE
RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY.  TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM SWRN CO INTO
W-CNTRL NM...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 
GIVEN PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG 45-55 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
/PER ABQ VWP/ ACROSS AREA...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.