[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291623
SWODY1
SPC AC 291622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
ISP 20 N JFK 10 SW POU 10 WNW PSF 15 NNE RUT 15 NW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DRT 45 NW SAT
40 NE CLL 25 NW JAN 30 ESE RMG 25 NW GSO 10 NNW DCA 20 WSW ALB 20 N
PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE FHU 70 WNW SAD
20 NNW INW 15 ESE U17 25 ESE CNY 15 SSE ASE 35 W COS 25 NW PUB 25 SW
RTN 50 NW TCC 20 WNW AMA 10 SSE PVW 45 ENE HOB 65 SE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ECG...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD CONTINUE NE
ACROSS THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY AND DEAMPLIFY LATER TODAY...WITH
ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. 
FARTHER S...FOUR CORNERS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY E...
REACHING N CNTRL/NE NM BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...NEW ENG...
NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ENE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NEW ENG TODAY...JUST AHEAD OF
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
IN THE PAST 2 HOURS.  HEATING...HOWEVER...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN AND ERN PARTS OF NEW ECG
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN SOME REINTENSIFICATION
OF THE CONVECTION.  BUT THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UPDRAFT STRENGTH
LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DYNAMIC.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD /ILLUSTRATED BY 70 KT LLJ AT BTV/ AND PERSISTENCE
OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE FOR DAMAGING SURFACE
WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR/DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

...SRN ROCKIES...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPR LOW WILL CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER WRN AND CNTRL NM SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG
WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM.  WHILE NOT
EXCEPTIONAL...COUPLED WITH 50+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.  THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OR MID-EVENING.

..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.