[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300049
SWODY1
SPC AC 300047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB ALM 55 NE SAD GUP
55 WSW MTJ ASE COS PUB TAD 35 NNE CAO EHA 60 SW GAG LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT COT VCT
HOU LCH LFT GPT MCN 45 SSW CLT 50 ENE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION TO ZONAL ORIENTATION AS MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS CANADIAN
MARITIME.  FARTHER SW...MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUT-OFF
AND QUASISTATIONARY ABOUT THE 4-CORNERS REGION FOR A COUPLE
DAYS...HAS BEGUN TO EJECT EWD BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. 
CENTER OF THIS CYCLONE SHOULD REACH RATON MESA AREA BY 30/12Z.

NERN CONUS SEGMENT OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF
FORCED-ASCENT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO CG LIGHTNING...HAS MOVED
E OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND NO LONGER IS A FACTOR IN THIS OUTLOOK. 
FARTHER SW...FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS/GA...ACCOMPANIED
AND PRECEDED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS.  FRONT
IS MOVING OFF LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST AND SHOULD BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT OVER DEEP S TX...AS WA REGIME COMMENCES
FARTHER NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

...NM...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND NEWD ACROSS MUCH
OF NM EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN PORTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS
MOVING INTO SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX.  MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND LOW LEVEL
SLYS/ELYS COMBINE TO YIELD WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NM PER VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC
SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS NEAR SFC HAVE PEAKED
AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...A TREND DRIVEN MAINLY
BY LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND LOCALLY BY EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS.  THEREFORE ANY REMAINING SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
APPEARS MARGINAL AND BRIEF.

..EDWARDS.. 09/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.