[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291053
SWODY1
SPC AC 291051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
NEL 25 SE BWI 15 W DCA 35 SSW MRB 50 E MGW 25 SSW DUJ 30 NNE BFD 50
WSW ART ...CONT... 55 N BML 20 NW BGR 35 S EPM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW 3B1 45 NE 3B1
45 SSE HUL ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 35 NNW HDO 30 SE ACT 15 N UOX 65 W
LOZ 15 WSW UNI YNG 35 W BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DUG 40 NE TUS 50
SSW INW 15 SSE PGA U28 55 ESE VEL 45 E CAG 10 E DEN 35 N LHX CAO 15
NE CVS 40 WNW HOB 25 NNE GDP 40 SSE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT
40 KT ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. THE NARROW LINE OF STORMS IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A FOCUSED BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE FINE-LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THE VAD WIND
PROFILER AT BINGHAMTON NY CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
WITH 70 KT AT 3 KM AND 50 KT BELOW 1 KM. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR
COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F NEAR LONG
ISLAND WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN ME...VT...NH...MA AND RI SUGGESTING THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
LINE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT
POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...SRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT...THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL CREATE
INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG WITH 850 TO
500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
EXCEPTIONAL...THE STRONG SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY IF
INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE HAIL THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY OR MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.