[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290544
SWODY1
SPC AC 290543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WNW SAD
PGA 45 SSE VEL 35 ESE CAG DEN LHX 40 ENE CVS INK 65 WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW LRD 45 WSW TPL
GGG TUP TYS BLF 40 N SHD ITH 40 NE UCA MPV EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH UPCOMING DAY-1
PERIOD AS INTENSE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT
LAKES AND NERN CONUS.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED
FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...SRN AR AND W TX -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE
SURGING SEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
EWD OVER MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER 4-CORNERS
REGION -- IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS ERN ROCKIES INTO DAY-2.

...NERN CONUS...
PRIND LOW-TOPPED...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS REGION.  POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A FEW CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS..SUPERIMPOSED
ON ALREADY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS.  INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
ARE FCST DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD -- SHIFTING FROM MID ATLANTIC
EARLY-MID MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY IS FCST TO
BE MINIMAL OVER MOST OF REGION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200
J/KG...HOWEVER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
MAUL -- MOIST ABSOLUTELY-UNSTABLE LAYER -- TO DEVELOP IN ERN NY AND
SHIFT EWD FOR A FEW HOURS OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND.

...NM AND SMALL PARTS OF ADJACENT 4-CORNERS STATES...
ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
REGION DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE COMBINATION OF
OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC COOLING DIMINISH CONVECTION.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEPEST UNDER COLD CORE REGION OF LOW.  FARTHER
SE...LOW LEVEL ELY AND SLY WINDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH WRN PORTION OF
FRONTAL ZONE AND LOCALLY MODIFIED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING -- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NM.  IN
COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX S AND SE OF LOW...THIS ALSO WILL
ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS
TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM IS THERMODYNAMIC -- MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF MORE VIGOROUS HEATING.

..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.