[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281946
SWODY1
SPC AC 281945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
SHV 10 W GGG 25 E DAL 10 NE DUA 35 NW PGO UMN 35 E SGF UNO 50 W ARG
20 WSW LIT 40 NE SHV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MFE 25 NW COT
65 NE P07 35 S ELP ...CONT... 65 WSW FHU 50 ENE PHX 40 N IGM 35 ENE
P38 45 WSW PUC 30 WNW 4FC 20 N COS 10 SSE LHX 35 S DHT 25 NE PVW 40
S LTS 35 S OKC 10 SSW CNU 25 SW SZL 40 SE UIN 25 NNE BMI 20 W MKG 20
ESE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE MSS 25 NW HGR 30 N HKY 40 S CLT 45 ESE ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO TO NERN TX...

...MO TO NERN TX...

SFC PRESSURES ARE RISING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH HAVE
FORCED A WIND SHIFT DEEP INTO OK AND NWRN TX.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN TX INTO WRN AR ALLOWING
STEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WEAKEN
THE CAP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT.  SHALLOW CONVECTION IS NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN OK...BUT IS STRUGGLING...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A FEW HOURS.  ONE PARTICULAR PROBLEM
IS THE SLOPE OF THE FRONT AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC WIND SHIFT. IF THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM IN AN ELEVATED
FASHION...THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM
THERMAL PROFILES.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL
SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT
CAN EVOLVE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NERN TX INTO WRN AR...AND
PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MO.  OTHER CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THIS REGION
WILL BE IMPEDED BY POOR LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT.

...ELSEWHERE...

AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...WITH
STORM MERGERS AND PROPAGATIONAL AFFECTS FORCING CONVECTION INTERIOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...INTENSITY AND DURATION OF ANY
PARTICULAR EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FARTHER WEST...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION...ESPECIALLY NM.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
EVOLVED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEPER MOIST PLUME WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PRODUCE
SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.  REF SWOMCD 2288.

..DARROW.. 09/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.