[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281632
SWODY1
SPC AC 281630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
SHV 50 WNW LFK 25 SSW DAL 25 W DUA 30 E TUL 45 NE CNU 45 NE SZL 15
SE CMI 25 N EVV 20 SW ARG 20 ESE SHV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
FMY 15 NNE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 50 ENE PHX
40 N IGM 35 NNW SGU 50 ESE U24 30 WNW 4FC 20 N COS 15 SE LHX 50 N
EHA 25 E DDC 15 NE HUT 35 NW TOP 55 NW LWD 40 SW LSE 80 NNE MQT
...CONT... 10 NE MSS 25 NW HGR 30 N HKY 40 S CLT 30 ESE ILM
...CONT... 20 W MFE 25 NW COT 65 NE P07 40 SE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E/SE INTO THE OH VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
...LEAVING OLD UPR LOW ADRIFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.  COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS IMPULSE SHOULD REACH AN APN/HUF/CGI/LIT/
DFW/MAF LINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS/LWR MS VLY BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED NNE/SSW
ACROSS SRN KS/OK AND NW TX...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING S INTO THE
SRN PLNS.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE AND IS EVENTUALLY OVERTAKEN BY
THE FRONT.

STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS TX AND
SRN/ERN OK.  COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP...WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG FROM ERN OK SW INTO
TX.  SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO NRN AR AND
CNTRL/SRN MO.

STRONG ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING E ON SRN FRINGE OF PLNS
SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MOST OF SLIGHT RISK REGION CAPPED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...AND RAISES DOUBT AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE- BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BUT COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT AND UNUSUALLY
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
INITIATION ALONG IMMEDIATE FRONT/TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...MOST
LIKELY IN NRN PART OF RISK AREA.  DEVELOPMENT MAY THEN OCCUR SWD
ALONG FRONT/TROUGH INTO NE TX THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT...
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL IF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS DO
FORM /HIGH CAPE COUPLED WITH LARGE SUB CLOUD LAYER T-TD SPREADS/
...A SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED.  CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER AR/SE OK AND NE TX.
 THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
HIGH WIND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY SEWD INTO NW LA.

...SRN/CNTRL FL...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ON WRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX LOW
LATITUDE UPR LOW CENTERED E OF PBI.  MIA MORNING RAOB...WITH 850-500
MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM AND PW CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...APPEARS
REPRESENTATIVE OF S FL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  WIND PROFILES
ATTM SHOW WEAK ESELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM /ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ERN GULF/ VEERING TO 20 KTS SWLY AT MID
LEVELS.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WIND FIELD...AND WITH
SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY STORMS.  SOME OF
WHICH MAY WEAKLY ROTATE...MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND YIELD WET
MICROBURSTS/HAIL.

...SRN RCKYS/FOUR CORNERS...
UT UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO NRN AZ TODAY. SW FLOW
AROUND LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS ERN
AZ/NM...AND WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION.  COMBINATION OF 
35+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...PWS CLOSE TO 1 INCH AND STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY SE OF LOW INTO NW/N CNTRL NM.

..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 09/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.