[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290055
SWODY1
SPC AC 290054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SHV
TYR 35 NNE DAL 30 WSW PGO 25 ENE PGO 20 S MVN EVV 30 NW HOP MKL GLH
SHV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ART LBE 40 SE
LOZ 55 NNW AHN 45 ESE ILM ...CONT... 20 SSE CRP 15 WSW ALI 35 NNE
DRT 60 WSW MRF ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 N SAD GUP GJT EGE 30 S 4FC
40 SW COS RTN 35 S DHT HOB BGS ABI 35 WSW MLC 55 NW POF MTO 15 NW
SBN HTL 45 NNE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO NE TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH 29/12Z...WHILE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING SEWD OVER MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY...ARKLATEX REGION AND CENTRAL/WRN TX.

...MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX AREA...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INCLUDING
PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EVIDENT FROM WRN AR SWWD ACROSS DFW
METROPLEX AS OF 00Z.  REF SPC WWS 822...823...RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM FCST INFORMATION.  ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY
AIDED BY DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- ESPECIALLY OVER N-CENTRAL/NE TX --
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.  MODIFIED 00Z FWD RAOB
SUGGEST JUST A FEW DEG C COOLING...WHETHER DIABATICALLY OR FROM
POSTFRONTAL CAA...IS NEEDED TO REMOVE NEARLY ALL SBCAPE GIVEN DEEPLY
HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER
JUST BENEATH 500 MB LEVEL.  FARTHER NE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE BEFORE 29/06Z...IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL OF
MAINLY MARGINAL SEVERITY.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STILL
FARTHER NE ACROSS OH VALLEY AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH GEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT REGION.

...NM...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH HAIL AND A FEW GUSTS NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES AS SHOWN IN ABQ RAOB SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION...HOWEVER SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.

..EDWARDS.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.