[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
SHV 25 SSW TYR 20 SSE DAL 10 WSW DUA 35 SW MKO 35 N CNU 20 ESE MKC
JEF 45 ESE TBN 55 ENE LIT 15 ESE SHV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 65 WNW SAD
40 N IGM 35 NNW SGU 50 SE U24 20 ENE EGE 15 ENE COS 15 NW LAA 40 NNE
GCK 25 E HLC 45 ESE HSI 10 N SUX 15 N SPW 45 SSE RST 45 SE MBL 15
SSW OSC ...CONT... 20 SW MSS 30 N GSO 40 ENE CLT 30 NE FLO ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 25 NW COT 65
NE P07 40 SE ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S......

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL U.S.
REACHING GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THU. A STRONG PUSH OF POLAR AIR IS
SPREADING SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT AT 12Z EXTENDING FROM SERN MN
SWWD ACROSS SWRN IA THEN WWD INTO ERN CO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
RAPIDLY SE TODAY EXTENDING FROM NEAR STL SWWD ACROSS NWRN AR INTO
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY SUNSET.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AM FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD WILL ALSO MOVE
SEWD WITH THE FRONT CATCHING UP WITH IT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT NWD THRU OK INTO ERN KS.  THIS CONTINUES TO FUEL
ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AIDED BY A 40KT LLJ.

STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING THRU THE 90S ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK.  COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON FROM ERN OK SWWD INTO N TX WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG.

AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REQUIRE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON FOR HEATING
TO WEAKEN CIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORM INITIATION.  HOWEVER WITH LAPSE
RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE NRN PORTION OF
RISK AREA.

MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT FROM ERN OK/WRN OK/SWRN MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SWD
INTO NERN TX/LA TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE AVAILABLE
AND THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRE-FRONTAL
INITIATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE RISK AREA...HAVE
UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS OF 30-35DEG F....IN ADDITION TO
ENHANCED WIND THREAT PROVIDED BY THE STRONG FRONT.  LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


...S FL...

WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING EWD ACROSS S FL TODAY. WITH LAPSE RATES TO
NEAR 7C/KM AND MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG A FEW
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

...SRN ROCKIES REGION...

UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING SEWD WILL STALL ALONG UT/AZ BORDER
TODAY. SWLY FLOW AROUND LOW CONTINUING TO DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NEWD ACROSS ERN AZ/NM. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN VICINITY AND E OF UPPER LOW.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.