[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271956
SWODY1
SPC AC 271955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 WNW GBN
25 NE TRM 25 ENE DAG 35 WNW DRA 25 SSW NFL 20 WSW LOL 35 NNW OWY 50
SW MQM 50 SW COD 20 SW CPR 45 W BFF 10 SE AIA 25 SW OFK 15 WSW FNB
20 E EMP 35 N END 45 W GAG 20 ESE CNM 75 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE MQT 25 WNW RHI
20 NW EAU 35 WNW MSP 35 N AXN 20 WSW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 40 SSW CLL
55 N CLL 40 W TXK 10 NNE HOT 30 ENE PBF 50 ENE MLU 30 S HEZ 10 NNE
MSY 25 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 SSE ATL 30 NE AGS 30 SE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN MOIST PLUME
EXTENDING FROM NRN AZ...ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS MAIN CONVEYOR IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. 
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...200-400 J/KG
MLCAPE...REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS BENEATH STRONGER RAIN
SHOWERS.  IN FACT...42KT WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED AT EGE AT 19Z INVOF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.  NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO WITH
SOME THREAT FOR HAIL FARTHER WEST BENEATH COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.  AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL.

...EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG THE SABINE RIVER OF SERN TX/WRN LA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH A NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000J/KG FROM SWRN LA...NWWD TO NEAR VERY WEAK SFC LOW NEAR LFK.  A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR LCH...PARTIALLY INFLUENCED
BY TRAJECTORIES OFF NRN GULF.  LATEST THINKING IS VERTICAL PROFILES
WILL NOT SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 09/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.